Assessment of the impact of the “Green Country” programme on carbon neutrality and long-term CO2 absorption forecasts

Iryna Gruzinska
Received: 21.05.2025 Revised: 29.09.2025 Accepted: 29.10.2025
Retrieved from Vol. 28, No. 11, 2025 Pages: 9-19
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Abstract

The aim of the study was to determine the potential of the Green Country programme for CO2 sequestration and its capacity to ensure the achievement of climate neutrality in Ukraine by 2035. A complex of spatio-temporal modelling, analysis of official statistical data from the State Forest Agency and geospatial assessment of natural zones using age-based absorption indicators was applied. Time intervals of 10, 20, 60 and 80 years were used to assess sequestration dynamics, alongside planting density standards and species composition of the stands. It was established that within the Green Country programme, as of the first half of 2025, 719.9 million trees had been planted, which made it possible to forecast an annual absorption of approximately 7.12 thousand tonnes of CO₂. The analysis demonstrated the dominance of coniferous stands (51.4%), which provided the highest productivity during the vegetation period of 0-20 years. Significant regional differentiation was identified: the highest sequestration rates were recorded in Polissia and Forest-Steppe, while steppe and eastern regions showed minimal values due to climatic constraints and the impact of military actions. The developed predictive model showed that over 80 years the plantations would be able to accumulate 376.3 million tonnes of CO2, with 35.6 million tonnes absorbed over ten years and 142.5 million tonnes over twenty years. It was determined that if the current pace of forest restoration were maintained, the target of 75.6 million tonnes of CO2-equivalents per year, set by the state strategy, would be exceeded by 2 million tonnes. The practical value of the research lay in the possibility of using the results by governmental bodies, environmental institutions and digital monitoring systems for afforestation planning and the formation of Ukraine’s climate policy

Keywords

carbon sequestration; spatio-temporal modelling; age structure of forests; climate policy; forest ecosystems; environmental management

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Gruzinska, I. (2025). Assessment of the impact of the “Green Country” programme on carbon neutrality and long-term CO2 absorption forecasts. Scientific Horizons, 28(11), 9-19. https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor11.2025.09