Ukraine’s competitive position in international agricultural markets: Overcoming challenges and prospects

The agricultural sector continues to be a leader in the global market as an exporter of agricultural products, but the large-scale war in Ukraine and geoeconomic challenges have substantially changed the priorities for choosing trade partners in export-import activities in a competitive environment. The purpose of this study was to analyse the possibility of maintaining the competitive position of Ukrainian agri-food products in the world commodity markets and to identify strategic alternative market segments of the agricultural sector through the lens of structural transformations in commodity exports. The study employed economic and statistical methods of research (for analysing the dynamics and structure of agricultural exports), the index method (for assessing the level of market monopolisation), analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction (for substantiating conclusions and proposals). It was found that competitive positions were strengthened in the structural transformation process through the development of new market segments. The study analysed the commodity and geographical structure of exports and the nature of changes in the choice of priorities and market concentration and found that the impact of negative factors objectively reoriented producers and intermediaries to the European market, strengthening the role of Eastern European countries. The study identified changes in competitive positions in the markets of grain, oilseeds, vegetable and animal fats, which allowed assessing the prospects for the recovery and retention of target agricultural markets. The dynamics of changes in the positions of importing countries showed new leaders in the import of agri-food products, including the top 5 countries: Romania, Turkey, Poland, China, and Spain. The study found that the primary consumers in the vegetable and animal fats market are India, Poland, Spain, and Romania; in the oilseeds market – Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Egypt. The value of the Herfindahl–Hirschman index indicates that Ukraine has partially lost its competitive advantages in China, Egypt, and Israel due to increased market concentration. The proposals for strengthening competitive positions in international agricultural markets in the face of global risks are of practical significance. The findings of this study are recommended to be used at the state and local levels in determining the strategic areas of competition policy, which can be effectively implemented under conditions of subsidies and regulation of agricultural markets, cost and price advantages, compliance with quality and safety standards, compliance with the spatial location of agri-food segments, the ecological ability of agriculture to withstand climate change, and information provision of producers