Dairy industry as a driver of economic growth
Abstract
The aim of the study was to examine the current state of the dairy industry in Kyrgyzstan, assess its economic impact, and identify the main challenges and opportunities for further development. The dynamics of milk production in the country in 2016-2024 were analysed, regional peculiarities of development were assessed, trends in import and export operations and their impact on the economic growth of Kyrgyzstan were identified. The factors of increasing the competitiveness of domestic dairy products are studied, and forecast estimates are made for the volumes of its imports and exports for the period 2025-2028. It was established that the total volume of milk production in the Kyrgyz Republic increased by 16.6%, reaching 1823 thousand tonnes in 2024, which indicates a positive trend in the development of the industry. Regional differences in production rates were found, with the highest volumes in Issyk-Kul and Jalal-Abad regions and lower volumes in the cities of Bishkek and Osh, which could be due to structural issues or changes in consumer preferences. Dairy production increased overall, especially in the ice cream, butter, cheese, and yoghurt segments. However, production of cream was volatile due to fluctuations in demand and raw material supplies. According to the SWOT analysis, Kyrgyzstan's dairy industry has its advantages: environmental friendliness, high demand and processing infrastructure, but faces low levels of technology, fragmented production and quality issues. Opportunities include export development, investment and growing demand for organic products, while threats include import competition, high costs and unstable regulation. Development requires government support, modernisation and improved product quality. The forecast for the period 2025-2028 showed positive trends for the dairy industry in the Kyrgyz Republic. The volume of imports is expected to decrease by 4% annually, indicating a strengthening of domestic production and a decrease in dependence on imported products. The obtained results contribute to the formation of scientifically based recommendations for improving the efficiency of dairy production, reducing risks and strengthening its competitive advantages
Keywords
export; domestic production; competitiveness; forecast; diversification of the product range
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