Impact of decentralisation and war on land cover in the Zhytomyr Region of Ukraine
Abstract
This study aimed to examine land cover transformations in the Zhytomyr Region of Ukraine in response to decentralisation and war. It focused on assessing how shifts in local governance and the full-scale invasion have influenced land use dynamics, particularly changes in agricultural expansion, reductions in natural land cover types, and fluctuations in forested areas and water bodies. The study analysed land use patterns from 2016 to 2023 using Google Earth Engine’s Dynamic World V1 data, combining geospatial data with qualitative semi-structured interviews. The results showed that the decentralisation process launched in 2014 has strengthened local self government and empowered communities to manage land resources. This period was characterised by the expansion of agricultural land and the reduction of natural land cover types, such as grasslands and scrublands. By contrast, the full-scale invasion that began in 2022 resulted in a shift in land use priorities due to labour shortages, rising resource costs, and limited access to markets, which led to shrinking agricultural land and partial restoration of natural ecosystems. Particularly significant fluctuations are noted in forested areas and water bodies because of energy demands and restrictions on activities in conflict zones. The findings underscored the need for adaptive land resource management in the context of socio-economic and political challenges, as well as the importance of land cover monitoring for regional planning and the sustainable use of natural resources. By analysing geospatial data from Google Earth Engine’s Dynamic World V1 and qualitative semi-structured interviews, the study identified key trends from 2016 to 2023, evaluates the socio-economic and political drivers behind these changes, and highlights the challenges of adaptive land resource management in the face of instability. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the implications of land cover changes for regional planning and sustainable land use strategies
Keywords
land use change; GIS land monitoring; socio-economic impact; territorial reform; war effects
[1] Allan, A., Soltani, A., Abdi, M.N., & Zarei, M. (2022). Driving forces behind land use and land cover change: A systematic and bibliometric review. Land, 11(8), article number 1222. doi: 10.3390/land11081222.
[2] ASA’s Committee on Professional Ethics (COPE). (1997). Retrieved from https://www.asanet.org/about/ethics/.
[3] Bekere, J., Senbeta, F., & Gelaw, A. (2023). Socioeconomic drivers of land use and land cover change in Western Ethiopia. International Journal of Forestry Research, 2023, article number 831715. doi: 10.1155/2023/8831715.
[4] Brown, C.F., et al. (2022). Dynamic world, near real-time global 10 m land use land cover mapping. Scientific Data, 9, article number 251. doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01307-4.
[5] Bulygin, S., Vitvitskyy S.V., & Chayka, M. (2021). Improvement of biological productivity of saline and erosion-prone lands of Donetsk oblast by meadowing. Plant and Soil Science, 12(1), 59-67. doi: 10.31548/ agr2021.01.0059.
[6] Cegielska, K., Różycka-Czas, R., Gorzelany, J., & Olczak, B. (2025). Land use and land cover conflict risk assessment model: Social and spatial impact of suburbanisation. Landscape and Urban Planning, 257, article number 105302. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2025.105302.
[7] Di Marzio, P., Martino, P., Mastronardi, L., Fortini, P., Giancola, C., & Viscosi, V. (2009). Socio-economic and land cover changes analysis in a landscape with agricultural matrix. Italian Journal of Agronomy, 4(3s), article number 47. doi: 10.4081/ija.2009.s3.47.
[8] Forleo, M.B., Giaccio, V., Giannelli, A., Mastronardi, L., & Palmieri, N. (2017). Socio-economic drivers, land cover changes and the dynamics of rural settlements: Mt. Matese area (Italy). European Countryside, 9(3), 435-457. doi: 10.1515/euco-2017-0026.
[9] Harus, A., & Nivyevskyi, O. (2024). In unity there is strength: The effect of the decentralization reform on local budgets in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://voxukraine.org/en/in-unity-there-is-strength-the-effect-of-thedecentralization-reform-on-local-budgets-in-ukraine.
[10] Krausmann, F., Haberl, H., Schulz, N.B., Erb, K.-H., Darge, E., & Gaube, V. (2003). Land-use change and socioeconomic metabolism in Austria – part I: Driving forces of land-use change: 1950-1995. Land Use Policy, 20(1), 1-20. doi: 10.1016/s0264-8377(02)00048-0.
[11] Kutia, M., Li, L., Sarkissian, A., & Pagella, T. (2023). Land cover classification and urbanization monitoring using Landsat data: A case study in Changsha city, Hunan province, China. Ukrainian Journal of Forest and Wood Science, 14(1), 72-91. doi: 10.31548/forest/1.2023.72.
[12] Li, X., Wang, Y., Li, J., & Lei, B. (2016). Physical and socioeconomic driving forces of land-use and land-cover changes: A case study of Wuhan City, China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2016, article number 061069. doi: 10.1155/2016/8061069.
[13] OCHA. (2024). Retrieved from https://response.reliefweb.int/.
[14] OECD. (2018). Maintaining the momentum of decentralisation in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/9789264301436-en.
[15] Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 333-r “On Approval of the Concept of Reforming Local SelfGovernment and Territorial Organisation of Power in Ukraine”. (2014, April). Retrieved from https://zakon.rada. gov.ua/laws/show/333-2014-%D1%80#Text.
[16] Prospects of return to economic use of the land fund of Ukraine: Policy Brief. (2024). Retrieved from https:// kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Perspektivi-povernennya-u-gospodarske-vikoristannya-zemelnogofondu-Ukrai--ni-Policy-brief-2.pdf.
[17] Pyvovar, P., Dema, D., Topolnytskyi, P., Nykolyuk, O., & Pyvovar, A. (2023). Assessment of the impact of the land cover structure on tax revenues of local budgets of territorial communities based on GIS technologies. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 9(2), 34-62. doi: 10.51599/are.2023.09.02.02.
[18] Romanova, V., & Umland, A. (2021). The decentralisation reform in Ukraine: First accomplishments and future challenges. Political Studies, 1, 41-51. doi: 10.53317/2786-4774-2021-1-3.
[19] Skydan, O.V., Fedoniuk, T.P., Pyvovar, P.V., Dankevych, V.Ye., & Dankevych, Ye.M. (2021). Landscape fire safety management: the experience of Ukraine and the EU. Series of Geology and Technical Sciences, 6(450), 125-132. doi: 10.32014/2021.2518-170x.128.
[20] SSSU. (2023). Capital investments by type of economic activity (2010-2022). Retrieved from https://www.zt.ukrstat. gov.ua/StatInfo/kapinvest/investr.htm.
[21] SSSU. (2024). Distribution of the available population by type of area. Retrieved from http://db.ukrcensus.gov.ua/ MULT/Dialog/statfile_c.asp.
[22] UNHCR. (2024). Ukraine situation. Global Focus. Retrieved from https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/ situations/ukraine-situation.
[23] Wang, J., Wang, Sh., & Zhou, Ch. (2021). Quantifying embodied cultivated land-use change and its socioeconomic driving forces in China. Applied Geography, 137, article number 102601. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102601.
[24] Xie, Q., Han, Y., Zhang, L., & Han, Zh. (2023). Dynamic evolution of land use/land cover and its socioeconomic driving forces in Wuhan, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(4), article number 3316. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043316.
[25] Yang, Zh., Li, X., & Liu, Y. (2020). Land use change and driving factors in rural China during the period 19952015. Land Use Policy, 99, article number 105048. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105048.
[26] ZHOVA. (2023). Retrieved from https://eprdep.zht.gov.ua/Ekopasport%202023.pdf.