THE PROBABILITYS OF FORECASTING OF CONTENT OF 129I IN COW'S MILK

This work completes the cycle of five-year studies on the main nutrient streams of ¹²⁷I and ¹²⁹I in typical agroecosystems of Ukraine, which was held at the National University of Life Sciences and Natural Resources of Ukraine "UkrNDISh". One of the main sources of isotope iodine in humans is cow's milk. To predict the iodine content of milk, it is necessary to determine their content in the components of the daily diet (water, herbs, hay, grain and its derivatives). In the work on the basis of the probabilistic approach to the description of the specific content of ¹²⁹I isotopes in the soil of plants and possible values of the coefficients of its accumulation (transition) on the example of the Naroditsky district of Zhytomyr region, a methodology for predicting the specific activity of ¹²⁹I in milk of cows without direct measurement in soil and vegetable components of the diet was developed. For the practical implementation of the proposed methodology, the statistical characteristics of the accumulation coefficients ¹²⁷I for meadow grasses, potatoes, straw (oats, wheat) and iodine transfer coefficients from the daily ration to cow's milk for various settlements of continental Ukraine were estimated. The scope of research covers the areas that have undergone significant radioactive contamination as a result of the Chornobyl accident and relatively "clean" territory. The proposed methodology allows to obtain point, as well as interval estimates of the contents of ¹²⁷I and ¹²⁹I in of cows milk, with the level of trust that the user specifies, as well the evaluate possible exceedances of the established norms of this content. An approximate exspres method of probabilistic prediction of specific content of ¹²⁹I in cow's milk in the settlements is proposed and tested. This can greatly simplify the probabilistic forecasting process by confining itself to the means of the EXCEL spreadsheets, bypassing methods and algorithms for statistical simulation