Przewalski’s horse distribution analysis using geospatial data within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone habitats
Abstract
The recovery of the Przewalski’s horse population in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the protection of this unique species, and the creation of effective monitoring and habitat management plans using geoinformation technology are all crucial. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a monitoring system for this species that considers various factors of the environment. The research methodology involved a multi-step process that included collecting data (through a literature review and field observations), figuring out which key factors to model, and confirming the findings. As a result, habitat suitability maps were created for Przewalski’s horse distribution by synthesising data on terrain, climate, hydrology, vegetation cover, food competition, predator presence, and safety. The models were calibrated with factual observations from 2018 to 2024. The study found five harems of Przewalski’s horses in the exclusion zone in 2023. The distribution of these species is substantially influenced by elevation above sea level, proximity to highways and water bodies, resource competition, and predator activity. The 10-kilometer radius around the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant was designated as the least favourable region due to wildfires and human activity, while the most ideal habitats were in the central section of the research territory. A cluster study found that the exclusion zone could give Przewalski’s horses an extra 350 km2 of habitat, which is vital for keeping the population alive during natural succession. The GIS models created in this study can simulate prospective future environments, considering environmental alterations and conservation efforts
Keywords
mammals; GIS; acclimatisation; preservation; suitability map
[1] Beresford, N.A., Barnett, C.L., Gashchak, S., Kashparov, V., Kirieiev, S.I., Levchuk, S., Morozova, V., Smith, J.T., & Wood, M.D. (2021). Wildfires in the Chornobyl exclusion zone – risks and consequences. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 17(6), 1141-1150. doi: 10.1002/ieam.4424.
[2] Beresford, N.A., Gashchak, S., Wood, M.D., & Barnett, C.L. (2023). Mammals in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone’s Red Forest: A motion-activated camera trap study. Earth System Science Data, 15, 911-920. doi: 10.5194/essd15-911-2023.
[3] Bernátková, A., Oyunsaikhan, G., Komárková, M., Bobek, M., & Ceacero, F. (2024). Origin and experience influence the leading behaviour of reintroduced Przewalski’s horses. Animal Behaviour, 215, 89-96. doi: 10.1016/j. anbehav.2024.07.008.
[4] Bernátková, A., Oyunsaikhan, G., Šimek, J., Komárková, M., Bobek, M., & Ceacero, F. (2022). Influence of weather on the behaviour of reintroduced Przewalski’s horses in the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area (Mongolia): Implications for conservation. BMC Zoology, 7, article number 32. doi: 10.1186/s40850-02200130-z.
[5] Cao, Q.L., Pukazhenthi, B.S., Bapodra, P., Lowe, S., & Bhatnagar, Y.V. (2023). Equid adaptations to cold environments. In The equids: A suite of splendid species (pp. 209-246). Cham: Springer International Publishing. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-27144-1_8.
[6] Cao, Q.L., Zhang, Y., Songer, M., Leimgruber, P., Hu, D., Li, J., Wang, Ch., & Rubenstein, D. I. (2025). Coexistence between Przewalski’s horse and Asiatic wild ass in the desert: The importance of people. Journal of Applied Ecology, 00, 1-13. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.70013.
[7] Chodkiewicz, A. (2020). Advantages and disadvantages of Polish primitive horse grazing on valuable nature areas – a review. Global Ecology and Conservation, 21, article number e00879. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00879.
[8] Fauna Program. (2000). Approved by the Minister of Emergency Situations of Ukraine V.V. Durdynetsm.
[9] Fedoniuk, T.P., Galushchenko, O.M., Melnichuk, T.V., Zhukov, O.V., Vishnevskiy, D.O., Zymaroieva, A.A., & Hurelia, V.V. (2020). Prospects and main aspects of the GIS-technologies application for monitoring of biodiversity (on the example of the Chornobyl Radiation-Ecological Biosphere Reserve). Space Science and Technology, 26(6), 075-093. doi: 10.15407/knit2020.06.075.
[10] Fedoniuk, T.P., Pyvovar, P.V., Skydan, V., Melnychuk, T.V., & Topolnytskyi, P.P. (2024). Spatial structure of natural landscapes within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone. Journal of Water and Land Development, 60, 79-90. doi: 10.24425/jwld.2024.149110.
[11] Gashchak, S.P., & Paskevich, S.A. (2019). Przewalskis horse (Equus ferus przewalskii) in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone after 20 years of introduction. Theriologia Ukrainica, 18, 80-100. doi: 10.15407/pts2019.18.080.
[12] Hare, T. (2022). Animal habitats: Discovering how animals live in the wild. Singapore: Marshall Cavendish International Asia Pte Ltd.
[13] Implementation of the suitability modeling workflow. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://pro.arcgis.com/en/proapp/latest/help/analysis/spatial-analyst/suitability-modeler/implement-the-suitability-modeling-workflowusing-the-suitability-modeler.htm.
[14] Ito, T.Y., Lhagvasuren, B., Tsunekawa, A., & Shinoda, M. (2017). Habitat fragmentation by railways as a barrier to great migrations of ungulates in Mongolia. In Railway ecology (pp. 229-246). doi: 10.1007/978-3- 319-57496-7_14.
[15] Kajiwara, I., Yoshihara, Y., & Sato, S. (2016). A preliminarily assessment of landscape factors affecting habitat use by Przewalski horses and habitat evaluation in Hustai National Park, Mongolia. Mammalian Biology, 81(3), 340-344. doi: 10.1016/j.mambio.2016.02.009.
[16] Kerekes, V., Sandor, I., Nagy, D., Ozogany, K., Göczi, L., Ibler, B., Széles, L., & Barta, Z. (2021). Trends in demography, genetics, and social structure of Przewalski’s horses in Hortobagy National Park, Hungary over the last 22 years. Global Ecology and Conservation, 25, article number e01407. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01407.
[17] Lu, V., Xu, F., & Turghan, M.A. (2021). Przewalski’s Horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) responses to unmanned aerial vehicles flights under semireserve conditions: Conservation implication. International Journal of Zoology, 2021, article number 6687505. doi: 10.1155/2021/6687505.
[18] Orizaola, G. (2020). From nuclear desert to evolutionary lab: The response of living organisms to Chernobyl’s ionising radiation. Mètode Science Studies Journal, 10, 193-199. doi: 10.7203/metode.10.15682.
[19] Palmero, S., et al. (2023). Shining a light on elusive lynx: Density estimation of three Eurasian lynx populations in Ukraine and Belarus. Ecology and Evolution, 13(11), article number e10688. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10688.
[20] Peng, W., López-Carr, D., Wu, C., Wang, X., & Longcore, T. (2020). What factors influence the willingness of protected area communities to relocate? China’s ecological relocation policy for Dashanbao Protected Area. Science of the Total Environment, 727, article number 138364. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138364.
[21] Schlichting, P.E., Dombrovski, V., & Beasley, J.C. (2020). Use of abandoned structures by Przewalski’s wild horses and other wildlife in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Mammal Research, 65(1), 161-165. doi: 10.1007/ s13364-019-00451-4.
[22] Skydan, O.V., Dankevych, V.Y., Fedoniuk, T.P. Dankevych, Y.M., & Yaremova, M.I. (2022(. European green deal: Experience of food safety for Ukraine. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 9(2), 63-71. doi: 10.21833/ijaas.2022.02.007.
[23] Skydan, O.V., Fedoniuk, T.P., Pyvovar, P.V., Dankevych, V.Ye., & Dankevych, Y.M. (2021). Landscape fire safety management: The experience of Ukraine and the EU. News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences, 6(450), 125-132. doi: 10.32014/2021.2518-170X.128.
[24] Stoner, D.C., Anderson, M.T., Schroeder, C.A., Bleke, C.A., & Thacker, E.T. (2021). Distribution of competition potential between native ungulates and free-roaming equids on western rangelands. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 85(6), 1062-1073. doi: 10.1002/jwmg.21993.
[25] The ARRIVE guidelines 2.0. (2010). Retrieved from https://arriveguidelines.org/arrive-guidelines.
[26] Turghan, M.A., Jiang, Z., & Niu, Z. (2022). An update on status and conservation of the Przewalski’s horse (Equus ferus przewalskii): Captive breeding and reintroduction projects. Animals, 12(22), article number 3158. doi: 10.3390/ani12223158.
[27] Zhang, Y., Liu, J., Zhang, K., Wang, A., Sailikebieke, D., Zhang, Z., Ao, T., Yan, L., Zhang, D., Li, K., & Huang, H. (2024). Biological response to Przewalski’s horse reintroduction in native desert grasslands: A case study on the spatial analysis of ticks. BMC Ecology and Evolution, 24(1), article number 61. doi: 10.1186/s12862024-02252-z.