Methodical Approach to Assessing Level of the State Energy Security and Its Influence on the National Security and Economy of the Country


This paper presents possible methodical approach to assessing level of the state energy security and its influence on the national security. In order to ensure proper level of the national security of the state, it is necessary to assess dangers in a great variety of areas, particularly, in the energy sector. Authors of this paper propose a version of solving the problem with the help of application of the state-of-the-art information technologies on the basis of the intellectual analysis of statistical data. The authors provide general description of the methodical approach in order to assess dangers for the existing level of the energy security. This approach is based on the comprehensive application of the grouped expert estimates, as well as on the theory of the experiment planning (the experimental design theory) and on the group method of data handling. The proposed approach is characterised by its relative simplicity and usability from the point of view of application of the already existing software products. The results, which would be obtained with the help of this method, can be easily interpreted and analysed. In addition, this paper proposes more adequate approach to understanding level of the energy security, as well the level of the national security of the state. The paper presents the specific example for assessing level of the energy security as well as procedure for finding explicit form of the computational functional with the help of the software GMDH Shell, which makes it possible to increase validity of the derived data as compared with the known approaches. Subsequent investigations will be carried out with the purpose of development of the scientifically substantiated approach to identification of the relevant criterial values of the danger indicators in order to ensure making adequate decisions in respect of responding to these dangers

Keywords: national security, economy of the country, GMDH Shell software, information technologies, energy